Self-driving car market worth trillions by 2030?

As the world’s biggest players in IT and the car makers dive frantically into self-driving cars, a new report estimates this market will grow to an astonishing $2.6 trillion annually within 15 years.

The site Gas2.org reports the startling growth prospects for self-driving cars revealed in a new Mogran Stanley report led by Katy Huberty.

Her research team estimates that the global shared mobility market will reach $$2.6 trillion annually by 2030.

Much of what’s superficially driving this market is disruptive technology and business models of companies like Uber and Lyft. These companies have muscled into the traditional taxi market in big cities worldwide and shown a thriving willingness for tech savvy citizens to pay for new types of services.

More importantly, Uber’s disruptive approach has broken open the car-buying paradigm in big cities, and exposed an increasing desire by urban dwellers to reduce vehicle ownership or skip it all together. And as individual car ownership is expected to wane, this will be countered by a corresponding rise in vehicles sold to shared mobility networks.

Demand seems strong – but trillions?

Earlier this spring, Uber’s CEO boldly pronounced that if Tesla developed an autonomous car by 2020 Uber would by the entire manufacturing run. Following this Tesla guru Elon Musk coyly hinted that electric car company may be poised to enter into the race to develop self-driving cars.

Another new contender in the car market is Apple, which invested $1 billion in Didi Chuxing, a Chinese ride hailing service. Not only will that deal allow Apple to integrate its existing technology in a new market, but it will provide vital data on consumer behavior in China, a market that analysts predict will be one of the most open to switching to autonomous vehicles.

This seismic market shift has traditional automakers scrambling to catch up to the drastically changing technology and consumer landscape.

Volkswagen recently announced that it would focus more of its resources on self-driving and electric cars, while pumping $300 million into Israeli firm Gett.

Not to be outdone, General Motors recently acquired Cruise Automation for $1 billion and invested an additional $500 million into Lyft.

Add to this Chrysler teaming up with Google self-driving minivans and BMW’s refocusing its “i” division toward developing autonomous car technology.

And with such huge players from both the IT world and the automaking universe gambling big, it’s clear there will be massive winners and losers as the technology shakes out. So strap in, it’s going to be one wild ride.

Well, it’s practical: Google’s next self-driving car is a Chrysler minivan

here’s a lot to like about Google’s own self-driving cars, but if you’ve got kids, you’d need a fleet just to get them to the soccer game and back. That, presumably, is why the Google initiative’s first direct collaboration with an automaker will automate a nice, roomy new Pacifica minivan.

Not only is the mileage great (it’s a hybrid) but there’s space for the whole family! But more importantly for Google, it’s a very different type of vehicle from what the project has tested thus far, although the Lexus SUVs used early on were fairly traditional.

Related Articles

Even your connected car will need antivirus softwareMIT explains self-driving cars with rubber duckiesSelf-driving delivery vehicle startup Dispatch raises $2 million seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz

“The minivan design also gives us an opportunity to test a larger vehicle that could be easier for passengers to enter and exit, particularly with features like hands-free sliding door,” read a post at the project’s Google+ page.

So while point-to-point travel for individuals is certainly on the table for future Google autonomous vehicles, the company is clearly looking into broader applications that require a different approach.

Self-driving cars could be incredibly useful for disabled or aged people, for instance, but the question of accessibility — wheelchair accommodation, an interface for the seeing-impaired, etc. — immediately appears. A big platform like the Pacifica is a more realistic test bed for exploring such considerations.

Around 100 vehicles will be specially prepared by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles to work with Google’s sensor suite. For the present, they’ll be limited to testing on the company’s California test track.

Detroit Auto Show to launch an all-autonomous spin-off in 2017

After swamping the Detroit Auto Show for the past two years, event directors have decided to debut an autonomous spin-off show in 2017, called AutoMobili-D.

The event will be held in Cobo Center Atrium in Detroit, Michigan on Jan 8, according toBoston Free Press. The atrium offers a 120,000 square-foot space and indoor test track for manufacturers to preview self-driving capabilities to industry experts and fans of the motor companies in a controlled environment.

See Also: Volvo tests self-driving cars in China and Sweden

“AutoMobili-D will provide an international look at the ever-changing world of consumer mobility and the ecosystem of companies and innovations that are driving this exciting transformation,” said Sam Slaughter, 2017 NAIAS chairman. “AutoMobili-D will provide the ideal platform for B2B networking and thought-provoking demonstrations.”

The spin-off event comes at a time where auto shows are struggling to maintain a powerful spot in the industry. Regular manufacturers are starting to prefer livestreaming or virtual reality announcements to spending loads on a spot at an auto show. Autonomous cars are in a different zone however, as manufacturers preview one or two features instead of an entire car at auto events. Previews require test drivers and a lot of space, two things auto shows have in spades.

Detroit has always been the go-to auto show

“Just as NAIAS has served as the leading global venue for automakers to debut brand-defining vehicles, AutoMobili-D will be the go-to setting for automakers, suppliers and startups alike to unveil advanced technologies and initiatives that will move the transportation industry into the next century,” said Slaughter.

Next year, we might see the first iterations of “mind-off” autonomous cars, which require minimal human interaction to drive. We are already seeing NuTonomy potentially launch a taxi service in Singapore, Baidu preparing to launch a similar service in China, and Google setting their sights on driverless software on the roads by 2018.

Add to that General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, and Citroën all working on autonomous vehicles, and the Detroit autonomous show looks to be a packed event full of startups and big name brands.