Get ready for a thermonuclear autonomous ride-hailing war

On Thursday, Ford CEO Mark Fields announced the company’s first autonomous car will arrive in 2021. That big news—even if the launch date is timid from the company that invented the first affordable car—but the even bigger story is a ride-hailing app will be the easiest (and cheapest) way to ride in the unnamed autonomous car.

Ford did not name the ride-hailing app it plans to launch in major cities, but it is clear the company is positioning for its own stake in the ride-hailing industry. Its not hard to see why,estimates from economists and transport experts say car autonomy will reduce car sales and car ownership, which takes a slice out of the automotive industry’s pie.

Uber, Lyft, and Didi are the three major firms that stand to gain from the reduction in car ownership, but they won’t be alone in the battle to win the ride-hailing market.

Automotive firms are gearing up for the battle of their lives. General Motors spent $600 million on a 40 person automation startup; Volkswagen, GM, Daimler, BMW, and Ford are all working on ride-hailing apps; Toyota, GM, Ford, Audi, BMW, and others have opened Silicon Valley offices and spent more on R&D than ever before.

Not to mention Apple and Google, the two most valuable companies in the world, are both working on self-driving and ride-hailing services.

A new world ride-hailing war?

Automotive firms are putting on their cooperative face, but come 2020 there will be thermonuclear war for ride-hailing market share. Every automotive firm will have its own ride-hailing app and software will be inserted into the car to make sure Uber, Lyft, or Didi can’t hijack it.

For Uber and Didi, that might force them to acquire an automotive manufacturer. For others that have less than $5 billion tucked away, it likely means lights out. Lyft could become an independent subsidiary of GM (or another larger company), a similar situation could play outin Europe with Gett and Volkswagen.

Partnerships may work for a time, but automotive firms have the power. Apart from Uber and Didi—who are building their own autonomous systems—automotive manufacturers will provide the hardware and software, putting them in a clearly advantageous position.

Volvo and Fiat are providing 100 cars to Uber and Google, respectively. It should be noted these two firms will have limited reach in the self-driving world, compared to major automotive manufacturers. In the future, we may see Uber, Google, or Didi dictate the design and production of the car, to meet standards, while the two firms have independent leadership.

Room for more?

The ride-hailing industry should look like the auto industry today, once the dust clears. Ford, GM, VW, and the other major suppliers will have the largest volume of cars on the road, while others attempt to win customers over with unique design, better software and services, or lower rates.

This only works if automotive manufacturers block ride-hailing services from adding software to their cars. If not, Uber takes control. Most affiliate ride-hailing with Uber, it will be nearly impossible for one of the upstarts (apart of Didi) to match the purchasing power and scalability of Uber.

Apple may make inroads, as it is able to provide the full package, but it may take the iPhone maker a few years to reach the scale of GM and Ford, who in this scenario are providing cars directly to Uber.

For the health of the auto industry, the former option; having manufacturers provide the ride-hailing services for their own cars, looks best. Some manufacturers will be unable to compete with Uber’s pricing and speed, but at least in this future customers have the choice of several operators, rather than the entire industry belonging to Uber.

The future of car ownership

It is unlikely that Ford, GM, and others will ban ownership out of the gate. Instead, it is likely that changes in cost, city planning, and laws will make ownership more exclusive and less enjoyable.

Prices will be too high for most families, while ride-hailing becomes much more affordable.City planners will remove parking garages and ban parking on the side of the road for extended periods of time. Driver’s licenses will become near impossible to obtain, unless you have clear sight, a clean record, and perfect understanding of all road signs.

Some may continue to purchase cars and be distrustful of autonomy, but most will conform once the economical advantages become obvious. Even fans of cars that add customizations will start to see their pastime fade, as the steering wheel, brakes, and other manual controls are removed in favor of tablets and desks.

Automotive manufacturers and tech firms may attempt to make the transition from ownership to hailing more attractive through customization. When you enter the autonomous car, your Spotify playlist is synced to the car stereo or your YouTube video moves to the large tablet. In the morning, the car plays soothing tunes and dims the lights. If you’re a big NFL fan, perhaps Google will let you watch the livestream for free if you take a ride.

We may see different business models rise, including a rent model where you can keep a car in close permitter for 24 hours. That may be useful for weekend trips to the countryside, where the ride-hailing services are unavailable. As the systems become more fine-tuned, it may deploy a car to your doorstep in the morning before you even order it.

All of this is highly speculative, but one thing is for certain, a new warzone is opening in the transport industry and everyone is fortifying their positions.

Mark your calendars: 2021 will be huge for autonomous cars

Ford revealed on Tuesday its intention to launch a fully autonomous car in 2021. Speaking at Ford’s research lab in Palo Alto, California, CEO Mark Fields said the company plans to launch a “level four vehicle, which means it won’t have a steering wheel, gas or brake pedal.”

It is the first public statement from Ford on a fully autonomous car — but rivals like BMW, General Motors, and Audi  all want to have a commercial driverless vehicle available a year earlier, by 2020.

And rumors are that while Tesla’s Elon Musk promised full autonomy by 2018, his firm’s latest update of their AutoPilot system will provide full autonomy in months.

In a Bloomberg interview, which we quoted above, Fields mentions a ride-hailing (or ride-sharing) app that the company plans to launch in major cities. Fields didn’t disclose the app’s business model or its launch date at the event.

From what we can gather, Ford will deploy thousands of autonomous cars, but also sell the car to customers. Fields did not say if the price of the car would be more than the average vehicle, though some expect the autonomous features to come in a more expensive package.

Ford also didn’t mention any major partnerships with Google, suggesting that the automotive giant wants to go it alone. It has made four strategic investments in startups, which includes$75 million to Velodyne LiDAR.

All automakers ramping up efforts

Fields also revealed before the announcement that Ford intends to double the size of its Silicon Valley research lab, to 280 employees.

Ford hasn’t made as much noise as its rival General Motors, which acquired Cruise Automation for $1 billion and invested $500 million into ride-sharing app Lyft. GM also reportedly offered to acquire Lyft, according to The Information, but Lyft rejected the offer.

That lack of noise may be troubling for investors that want to see Ford compete heavily in the market, though it could also play into the company’s favor if GM ends up writing off the Cruise Automation acquisition and losing market share to self-driving competion,

Mark your calendars: 2021 will be huge for autonomous cars

Ford revealed on Tuesday its intention to launch a fully autonomous car in 2021. Speaking at Ford’s research lab in Palo Alto, California, CEO Mark Fields said the company plans to launch a “level four vehicle, which means it won’t have a steering wheel, gas or brake pedal.”

It is the first public statement from Ford on a fully autonomous car — but rivals like BMW, General Motors, and Audi  all want to have a commercial driverless vehicle available a year earlier, by 2020.

And rumors are that while Tesla’s Elon Musk promised full autonomy by 2018, his firm’s latest update of their AutoPilot system will provide full autonomy in months.

In a Bloomberg interview, which we quoted above, Fields mentions a ride-hailing (or ride-sharing) app that the company plans to launch in major cities. Fields didn’t disclose the app’s business model or its launch date at the event.

From what we can gather, Ford will deploy thousands of autonomous cars, but also sell the car to customers. Fields did not say if the price of the car would be more than the average vehicle, though some expect the autonomous features to come in a more expensive package.

Ford also didn’t mention any major partnerships with Google, suggesting that the automotive giant wants to go it alone. It has made four strategic investments in startups, which includes$75 million to Velodyne LiDAR.

All automakers ramping up efforts

Fields also revealed before the announcement that Ford intends to double the size of its Silicon Valley research lab, to 280 employees.

Ford hasn’t made as much noise as its rival General Motors, which acquired Cruise Automation for $1 billion and invested $500 million into ride-sharing app Lyft. GM also reportedly offered to acquire Lyft, according to The Information, but Lyft rejected the offer.

That lack of noise may be troubling for investors that want to see Ford compete heavily in the market, though it could also play into the company’s favor if GM ends up writing off the Cruise Automation acquisition and losing market share to self-driving competitors.

BMW will launch iNext autonomous car in China, too

BMW has every intention of launching iNext, its first autonomous car, concurrently in China, Europe, and the United States, barring any regulatory resistance.

Speaking at an artificial intelligence and robotics conference in Shenzhen, Maximilian Doemling, the senior manager of the autonomous group, said:

“If you’re expecting autonomous function where you can be on the highway, press the button and the car does everything for you, like lane changing and driving, and you can play with smartphone, and you’re al1ways safe, we had the big announcement with Intel and Mobileye that we will have the iNext in 2021.”

It’s not surprising that BMW is prepared to launch iNext in China in the opening year. The country buys more cars than anywhere else, and in the past ten years people have started moving from General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen to more luxury brands, like BMW and Mercedes Benz.

BMW wants in on booming China market

Electric cars are also becoming a lot more popular in China, as residents in large cities see the impacts of pollution everyday and seek to reduce their own.1 Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk has said in the near future the company may start manufacturing cars in the country, due to the high demand for the Model S and expected demand for the Model 3.

BMW has a 2021 release date for the iNext, though that is only preliminary. While Tesla and Google may boast that self-driving is already safer, it still needs to get through a lot of regulatory hurdles before people can drive without looking at the road.

That said, BMW is positioning itself as a key player in the market, partnering with Intel and Mobileye to build a driverless system. BMW is also part of a consortium of German manufacturers that purchased Here Maps, giving them another resource for its self-driving endeavour.

ReachNow expands BMW car sharing to Portland

After launching in Seattle in April, BMW’s car sharing service ReachNow is expanding down the I-5 corridor to Portland, Oregon. In Seattle, more than 13,000 people signed up in the first month, and ReachNow was able to add 150 vehicles and expand its service area by late June. It’s likely the Portland expansion will follow the same plan, with a fleet of vehicles in the city center and expansion to farther-flung neighborhoods as demand increases.

Portland is no stranger to car sharing. Daimler’s car2go has been operating its fleet of smart fortwos (some of which are plug-in electric vehicles) here since March 2012. And Zipcar has been offering a wide variety of vehicles in Portland, from hatchbacks to pickup trucks, under various names since 1998. ReachNow has more kinds of cars than car2go but fewer than Zipcar, and they’re all from the BMW family: BMW 3 series, BMW i3 PHEVs and several Mini Cooper models.

Currently, car2go has a membership of 45,000 in Portland and a fleet of 465 vehicles. In a phone interview, Portland’s car2go general manager Ken Hills said, “Portland is a great city for car share. There’s good density, and it’s a tech-savvy town with early adopters who are really receptive.” As for adding another service to the mix in a city of 630,000 residents, Hills said, “Having a competitor will also increase awareness and options. Flexibility is a good thing, and the more awareness, the better.”

Portland is the second official city ReachNow will serve, but the pilot project in the United States was in the San Francisco area. (The service is known as DriveNow in Europe). In a phone conversation earlier this summer, ReachNow CEO Steve Banfield noted that San Francisco does not support free-floating car sharing, like ReachNow and car2go, where users can pick up a nearby car and drop it off wherever they like, as long as it’s in the service area. San Francisco does support station-based car sharing, like Zipcar, where you pick up and drop off vehicles at fixed locations. This, plus the challenge of just parking in San Francisco, made Seattle — and now Portland — a better fit for ReachNow.

In a more recent phone interview after the Portland announcement, Banfield noted that Portland’s city government is supportive of car sharing, having already welcomed car2go and Zipcar. And with a population already aware of car sharing, Portland “ticks a lot of boxes in its own right,” he said.

Banfield pointed out that car sharing is only the tip of ReachNow’s service iceberg. “We said in April that we would expand service and features as well as expand across North America.” And we can expect to see some of those new services later this fall, according to Banfield. “We’re telegraphing every punch we’re taking,” he said. “We’re trying to move really, really fast.”

There’s no official word on when Portlanders will be able to actually use ReachNow, though it seemed from our conversation like it would happen within a matter of weeks, not months. In the meantime, Portlanders (and everyone else in the country) can sign up in advance of ReachNow reaching their city for free.

BMW, Intel and MobilEye to bring fully autonomous car to the roads by 2021

BMW, Intel and MobilEye have teamed up to make fully autonomous cars a reality by 2021.

The companies are combining forces and know-how to build a 'future-proofed' platform for automated driving vehicles.

Although the first production creation from the trio won't be ready for five years, the companies have promised jointly created platform-based test cars by 2017.

We already know the flagship vehicle from BMW based upon this joint venture will be theiNEXT model that was announced in May.

IMAGE: BMW

Along with the collaboration proclamation on Friday morning, the companies revealed they will specifically be focused on the top three levels of automated driving, "so called 'eyes off' (level 3) and ultimately the 'mind off' (level 4) level" as BMW puts it. And "the final stage of traveling 'driver off' (level 5) without a human driver inside."

Despite the fatal crash involving a driver of a Tesla Model S this week, BMW, Intel and MobilEye still believe that "automated driving technologies will make travel safer and easier.

Self-driving car market worth trillions by 2030?

As the world’s biggest players in IT and the car makers dive frantically into self-driving cars, a new report estimates this market will grow to an astonishing $2.6 trillion annually within 15 years.

The site Gas2.org reports the startling growth prospects for self-driving cars revealed in a new Mogran Stanley report led by Katy Huberty.

Her research team estimates that the global shared mobility market will reach $$2.6 trillion annually by 2030.

Much of what’s superficially driving this market is disruptive technology and business models of companies like Uber and Lyft. These companies have muscled into the traditional taxi market in big cities worldwide and shown a thriving willingness for tech savvy citizens to pay for new types of services.

More importantly, Uber’s disruptive approach has broken open the car-buying paradigm in big cities, and exposed an increasing desire by urban dwellers to reduce vehicle ownership or skip it all together. And as individual car ownership is expected to wane, this will be countered by a corresponding rise in vehicles sold to shared mobility networks.

Demand seems strong – but trillions?

Earlier this spring, Uber’s CEO boldly pronounced that if Tesla developed an autonomous car by 2020 Uber would by the entire manufacturing run. Following this Tesla guru Elon Musk coyly hinted that electric car company may be poised to enter into the race to develop self-driving cars.

Another new contender in the car market is Apple, which invested $1 billion in Didi Chuxing, a Chinese ride hailing service. Not only will that deal allow Apple to integrate its existing technology in a new market, but it will provide vital data on consumer behavior in China, a market that analysts predict will be one of the most open to switching to autonomous vehicles.

This seismic market shift has traditional automakers scrambling to catch up to the drastically changing technology and consumer landscape.

Volkswagen recently announced that it would focus more of its resources on self-driving and electric cars, while pumping $300 million into Israeli firm Gett.

Not to be outdone, General Motors recently acquired Cruise Automation for $1 billion and invested an additional $500 million into Lyft.

Add to this Chrysler teaming up with Google self-driving minivans and BMW’s refocusing its “i” division toward developing autonomous car technology.

And with such huge players from both the IT world and the automaking universe gambling big, it’s clear there will be massive winners and losers as the technology shakes out. So strap in, it’s going to be one wild ride.

Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda lead the autonomous car race

Automakers have spent the majority of 2016 announcing their plans for self-driving and the future of automation, but while some just begin to prototype systems, others are soaring ahead of the pack.

Research and advisory firm Lux Research has charted the 12 major automakers on business execution and technical value, and noted if the company has a positive or negative view on the advent of self-driving.

Toyota, Honda, and Mercedes Benz are ahead right now, as you can see in the graph above. Tesla and BMW aren’t far behind, but the report claims that the two companies have a “wait and see” attitude to self-driving, rather than actively pushing for its arrival. The attitude is based on investments, partnerships, and demonstrated capability.

Daimler Trucks and Hyundai are the other two automakers in the top right on technical value and business execution. German automaker Audi has a decent technical value rating, but lacks the investment or business execution its German rivals BMW and Mercedes-Benz have achieved.

The two major automakers in the U.S.—General Motors and Ford—have similarly poor outlooks. The two companies are lower than all European rivals on technical value and business execution, apart from Renault-Nissan, which is far behind the group.

Self-driving car R&D market is white hot

General Motors has started spending heavily in the self-driving market, investing $500 million in a partnership with ridesharing app Lyft and purchasing Cruise Automation for $1 billion in March. Ford, on the other hand, may be looking to partner with Google to fix some of its self-driving shortcomings.

The PSA Group and Fiat Chrysler are both not on graph, despite both working on self-driving or partnering with tech companies. PSA Group, which controls Peugeot and Citroen, is currently the only firm allowed to test self-driving cars in France. Fiat Chrysler recently partnered with Google, providing them with 100 vans, and may have plans to create similar partnerships with Uber and Amazon.

While it is worrying to see companies like Renault-Nissan and Audi not invest in self-driving as much as rivals, we are still three years away from any concrete legislation that allows driverless cars on the road. That is enough time for any automaker to change their attitude towards self-driving.

BMW plans to turn old i3 EV batteries into home energy storage systems

When your BMW i3's battery finally conks out, you can use it at home as an energy storage system.

Electric vehicles' lithium-ion battery packs have a finite lifespan. However, just because a battery can't hold enough juice to power an electric car anymore doesn't mean it's ready for the recycling plant. In fact, if removed from the car, the battery can be turned into an energy storage solution for your home. At least, that's what BMW and Beck Automation have in mind.

On Tuesday morning at the Electric Vehicle Symposium & Exhibition 29 in Montreal, Quebec, the German automaker announced plans to turn old batteries from its i3 model into energy storage solutions for both residential and commercial applications.

Although the i3 EV isn't old enough to have battery packs that need replacing, they some day will, however. When that time comes, BMW and Beck will offer a 2nd Life Battery plan. Smartly, the solution is essentially plug and play. That means, the battery can be unbolted from the car and plugged into the Beck-designed charging module.

The benefits are many. By giving the still-useful battery another assignment, it saves it from being sent out for recycling, which is an energy-intensive process. What's more, it allows homeowners and businesses to capture solar energy (if they have a solar system) during the day that they can use to charge their EV with at night. You know, when the sun is down.

Short of solar, the Beck system could be programmed to charge the 2nd Life Batteries when energy prices are at their lowest, thereby saving the EV driver cost on charging. In this way, it's doubly eco-friendly.

Now, before you get too excited about this plan, there's of course a caveat. As mentioned before, there aren't any used i3 batteries ready for 2nd Life. Accordingly, this program is not yet in place. That said, BMW confirmed to Mashable that it could start trail programs here in the U.S. as soon as 2017 with larger scale rollout after that.

This announcement seems to beg another question: Are the BMW i3 2nd Life Batteries greener than the Tesla's Powerwall?

BMW's '2002 Hommage' concept celebrates 50 years of iconic coupes

Fifty years ago, BMW unveiled the now-iconic 2002 model and set the stage for current German sport luxury brand that we know and love today.

It's hard to believe, but before the 2002 model, BMW wasn't really BMW. I mean, it was. But it wasn't recognized on the global stage as a style and performance brand. The 2002, specifically the turbo model, changed all of that.

In honor of that anniversary, for this years' Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este, BMW created a modern interpretation of the 2002 turbo called the 2002 Hommage. The extra 'm' in homage must be for the BMW M division, I assume.

Likely based upon the new M2, the 2002 Hommage has been given the iconic BMW shark nose. Additionally, to mimic the 2002's chrome ring that runs around the car, the Hommage has a carbon fiber loop that splits the body visually into separate sections.

Designers covered the hood in matte paint, as to avoid reflecting light into the driver's eyes. And the golden headlights are more than just a way to draw the color of the painted brake calipers to the front of the car, they're meant to represent the "golden era" of BMW. Clever right?

Broadly, though, the Hommage's low and wide stance was created to achieve a car that could tackle high-speed, twisty race tracks with eagerness and poise — just like 2002 turbo.

Honestly, though I don't love the look of the Hommage, I do have to give BMW kudos for looking back to its heritage. So many brands have an eye on the tech-heavy future. It's nice to see BMW keep on eye on the autonomous future with cars like the iNext but also spend time reminiscing on its simpler past.

Hopefully, inspiration from the 2002 turbo can find its way into future production BMWs, not just wild, one-off show cars.

BMW to launch iNext autonomous car in 2021

BMW has confirmed plans to launch an electric, autonomous car by 2021, named the iNext. Chief executive Harald Krueger revealed the plans during the company’s celebration of 100 years in business.

“We are further expanding the BMW i line-up,” said Krueger. “In just a few weeks, we will offer an i3 with 50 per cent more battery capacity. In 2018, we will launch a BMW i8 Roadster. This will be followed in 2021 by the BMW iNext, our new innovation driver, with autonomous driving, digital connectivity, intelligent lightweight design, a totally new interior and the next generation of electro-mobility.”

Krueger didn’t give any details on the design or performance of the BMW iNext, we suspect a most of the autonomous car is still being worked on.

It is an interesting development however, since only a few automotive manufacturers have confirmed plans to launch autonomous cars. BMW has been one of the quicker car companies to embrace self-driving, with plans to install automatic parking on most cars by 2018.

An interesting part of the comment from Krueger is “the next generation of electro-mobility”, which suggests redefining of “automotive” from the company.

BMW and others considering “Cars-as-a-Service”?

We’ve heard that automotive companies are looking into offering several autonomous cars on a flat rate, so you could use a sporty car to get to work and then an SUV to take the family somewhere special on the weekends.

The cars would wait in a garage for your call and customers would pay monthly for the package. BMW has not mentioned that scenario in the announcement of the iNext, but it is a possibility.

While BMW is one of the first to announce plans to launch an autonomous car, it is not alone in the race. Tesla is starting to implement self-driving systems on highways already, General Motors recently acquired an autonomous car startup for $1 billion, Audi, Ford, Toyota,Mitsubishi, PSA Group, and Fiat Chrysler are working on their own systems or in partnership with Google.

BMW and Daimler abandon Apple Car talks

If Apple really is working on a car, it won’t be the Ultimate Driving Machine™. BMW and Daimler have discontinued talks with Apple over a potential automotive collaboration,Handelsblatt reports.

Things fell apart (last year for BMW, more recently with Daimler) over questions of leadership and ownership, the German newspaper’s source said — and given what we know about Apple, that seems like a perfectly likely sticking point. The idea of integrating the car closely with Apple services rather than their own may have rattled the car makers; of course, automotive brands are among the most powerfully guarded and promoted in the world.

Rumors swirled about a year ago around the idea of an Apple Car, and recent hires have been more than suggestive. But no one seems to agree on whether it’s an actual car, a collaboration with auto makers or something more subtle, like a carOS to be integrated with existing systems. One thing everyone is sure of, though: with hundreds of employees working on the project, whatever it is, it isn’t just a hobby.

So who’s left for Apple to work with? The latest rumors point to Magna, a Canadian-Austrian specialty electric vehicle maker that works with multiple badges to produce limited editions and one-offs. With top-shelf cred, less brand jealousy and probably less-demanding terms, Magna sounds like a good match for a well-heeled dilettante like Apple.